We’re in the heart of the spring season now, and the market is doing what it typically does this time of year: supply is trying to build, demand is trying to build, but the real story is still in the year-over-year comparisons. This week’s numbers reinforce the theme we’ve been living with for a while in Manhattan. Inventory remains tight relative to recent years, demand is improving, and the market continues to feel broadly neutral with push and pull on both sides.
At the same time, the Q1 2026 quarterly report just came in, and it gives us some wider context behind what we’re seeing week to week. Prices moved higher to start the year, inventory stayed structurally constrained versus last year, and mortgage rates pushed up late in the quarter. That rate move is worth watching closely as we start Q2.
A quick note on Iran and what it could mean for NYC real estate
When there’s geopolitical escalation, NYC real estate usually doesn’t react overnight. It shows up through the ripple effects. The two big ones to watch are oil and inflation (which can keep mortgage rates higher for longer) and overall market confidence (which can slow decision-making, especially for buyers who are rate-sensitive or who’s liquidity is coming from stocks).
That said, Manhattan isn’t purely a mortgage market, so this doesn’t automatically translate into falling prices. What it can do is thin out the marginal buyer and make the market more selective. Well-priced, clean, renovated listings still move, while anything aspirational tends to sit longer. And like most macro shifts, there’s usually a lag, so this is more of a “keep an eye on it” variable than an immediate market call.
Weekly Supply and Demand
Supply (Active Inventory): Manhattan supply came in at 6,132 this week, up 3.6% week over week, but still about 10% below last year. That’s the key point. We can get a spring bump in listings and still remain in a low-supply environment.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Demand (Liquidity Pace): The 30-day pace of contracts signed moved up to 1,073, up 0.9% week over week, but still 6.3% below last year. In spring, this number normally is above 1,000, and we’re there. The caveat is that last year wasn’t a huge year, and we’re still trailing it.
One important dynamic is that supply is down more than demand. That imbalance is a big part of why pricing can remain supported even when the market feels slower on the ground.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Weekly New Listings and Contracts Signed
New Listings: Weekly new listings jumped to 526, up 66.5% week over week and 6.7% above last year. That’s a meaningful rebound, especially after the softer numbers last week.
This is also where buyers feel the market most directly. When listing flow is strong, you notice it immediately in your inbox. You have options. That window tends to narrow as we move deeper into May.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Contracts Signed: Weekly contracts signed came in at 249, down 5.7% week over week, but up 6.9% year over year. Week-to-week can be noisy this time of year (holidays, spring break, travel). By recent-year standards, we’re still in the mid-200s, well below the 300+ weeks of peak-cycle seasons.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Rates: Still a Factor, Even If They’re Not the Whole Story
Mortgage rates this week are around 6.28% for a 30-year conforming and 6.56% for a 30-year jumbo. Rates aren’t the only driver in Manhattan, with all-cash purchases making up a larger portion of transactions, but they absolutely influence behavior in the sub-$4M market and they affect psychology. When rates drift higher, buyers get more selective and the market gets less forgiving of aspirational pricing.
Q1 2026 Quarterly Snapshot: The Bigger Context
Zooming out, the Q1 report helps connect the dots. Market wide, Manhattan opened 2026 with prices higher and inventory still constrained year-over-year.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
A couple notes that matter for interpretation: the quarter-over-quarter inventory jump is seasonal (Q4 to Q1 tends to do that), but the year-over-year inventory number is the headline. Supply is still tight. And rates moved from below 6% in February to closer to the mid-6s by late March, which could influence our direction heading into Q2.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
What to Watch For
For buyers: The next 4–6 weeks are typically the best blend of selection and leverage. New listings are flowing again (if not as fast as we might like), and the listing success data reinforces that correctly priced homes are moving. If you want optionality, this is the window.
For sellers: The market is working, but it’s selective. Price correctly, present well, and don’t assume you’ll “find the market later.” Once a listing starts to linger, the negotiating leverage tends to shift quickly.
As always, if real estate is on your mind, feel free to reach out any time.