As the year starts and we look back at 2025, Manhattan real estate feels less like a market in crisis and more like one moving through a long, drawn-out transition. Prices have been remarkably stable, supply has worked its way down to levels we last saw around 2015, and deal volume remains stuck in a mid-range “channel” rather than breaking decisively higher or lower. It hasn’t been a year of fireworks, but it has been a year where motivated buyers and sellers could get solid outcomes.
The 2025 4th Quarter
Starting with the 4th Quarter, the closed sales data shows a median sale price of $1,147,500—down 0.2% from the prior quarter but up 4.3% over the same time last year. The average sale price sits around $2,172,541, moving up 5.5% over last Quarter and 2.8% year-over-year. More importantly, median price per square foot, which can many times be the cleanest read on true price action, is essentially flat quarter-over-quarter and only 0.7% lower than a year ago. That’s not what a down market looks like; it’s the profile of a market that has adjusted slightly at the edges while holding its ground overall.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Download the Full 4th Quarter 2025 Report Here
Supply: Low Inventory Doing a Lot of Heavy Lifting
The multi-year supply chart is one of the most revealing views of 2025. If you ignore the pandemic drop and spike—which really were outliers—the bigger picture is clear: after a long upswing into the mid-2010s, supply has been trending down for the last several years. By the end of 2025, active listings are back near 2015-type lows.
Practically speaking, that means we are not dealing with an overhang of unwanted inventory. The sellers who remain on the market today are, by and large, people who genuinely want or need to transact. That alone has been a major stabilizing force. When there isn’t a glut of options, buyers may negotiate, but they don’t have the leverage to demand wholesale price resets—one of the key reasons prices have drifted sideways instead of rolling over.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Demand: The “Volume Trap” Era Continues
On the demand side, 2025 fits neatly into what has become the post-pandemic “volume trap” era. The 30-day rolling pace of contracts signed has stayed in a relatively narrow band all year. At times it has pushed toward the top of that channel, and we did see better readings than in 2023 and 2024, but it never sustained the kind of strength we associate with true boom periods like 2013–2015 or the sharp 2021 rebound.
The feeling on the ground matches the chart: there has been enough demand to keep things moving, but not enough to create broad bidding wars or rapid absorption. It’s a functioning market, not a frothy one. That can be frustrating for sellers who remember how quickly things traded a decade ago, but it also means buyers are operating in an environment where they can be thoughtful rather than rushed.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Listing Climate & Market Pulse: Balanced, but Not Easy
The Market Pulse seen on the chart below, compares contracts signed to listings taken off market. As you can see, Manhattan has been stuck in a kind of neutral tunnel for the last several years. For much of 2025, we sat in a neutral to mildly challenging zone for sellers—more favorable than the lows of the financial crisis or early pandemic, but nowhere near the “golden years” of 2013–2015, when almost anything reasonably presentable would trade quickly.
Lately, we’ve been trending toward the top of that tunnel, suggesting slightly more leverage for sellers than in 2023 or 2024, but not enough to reclassify this as a strong seller’s market. The key message is that both sides have to be realistic: overpricing still gets punished, and underpricing still attracts strong attention, but neither buyers nor sellers can assume the market is tilted entirely in their favor.
Manhattan Market Pulse – By Era
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Luxury: A Genuine Bright Spot
One area that clearly did more than “just enough” in 2025 was the luxury sector. Contracts at $4M and above came in just under 1,400 for the year, putting 2025 near the top of the last decade and second only to the 2021 surge. That confirms what many have felt day-to-day: high-end, largely cash-driven demand is still very much alive.
This matters for two reasons. First, it helps explain why some of the aggregate price measures look a touch stronger than the median numbers alone—there is simply more high-ticket activity in the mix. Second, it underscores how bifurcated the market can be. The upper end is performing quite well; the more rate-sensitive sub-$4M space is flatter and more dependent on precise pricing and quality of product.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
New York City Outperforming Most US Cities
When you zoom out beyond the city, Manhattan’s performance looks more respectable. Across the 50 largest U.S. metros, many of the markets that saw aggressive pandemic-era run-ups are now giving back gains. New York sits slightly on the plus side of that distribution—not at the top, but comfortably away from the most heavily hit markets. In other words, while our market can feel “stuck” compared with its own history, it has actually been more resilient than a number of cities that surged and are now unwinding.
Looking Ahead To 2026
Taken together, 2025 delivered a neutral but workable environment: prices that eased only slightly, supply at multi-year lows, deal volume that improved modestly but remained constrained, and a listing climate that was rarely easy yet not outright hostile.
For sellers, the opportunity lies in honest pricing, strong presentation, and a clear understanding of how today’s climate differs from the “golden years” of a decade ago. For buyers, the combination of sideways prices, targeted negotiability, and a more stable rate backdrop can create good entry points—particularly for those willing to look past cosmetic work or consider buildings that are out of favor for fixable reasons.
If you’re thinking about a move in 2026 or simply want to understand how this data might impact you, we would be happy to have a deeper conversation. Reach out anytime.