The New York City real estate market is beginning its seasonal transition, with the higher-end segment continuing to show resilience and outperform expectations, defying sensational news reports.
Seasonal Shift: Supply and Buyer Activity
Manhattan’s fall season has peaked, and the market is now settling into its pre-holiday slowdown.
- Supply: Expect the general supply of listings to continue decreasing as the year winds down and into 2026. This mirrors the typical seasonal pattern.
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- Buyer Activity: While a few active weeks remain, buyer activity is projected to gradually lighten as the holidays approach.
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- The Liquidity Pace chart illustrates fluctuations in market activity over time using a 30-day moving window of contract activity. The fall market experienced strong activity through October and mid-November. A look at buyer activity in the latter half of November shows that deal volume slowed significantly after November 15. This makes sense, as once Thanksgiving approaches, real estate activity often takes a back seat.
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Luxury Market Defies the Headlines
Contrary to some media narratives, the city’s high-end housing market is not collapsing. Sensational coverage, particularly around the mayoral race, painted a false picture of an imminent exodus of wealthy buyers.
In reality, the data tells a different story:
- No Mass Exodus: Current sales, price, and rent trends show that wealthy buyers are not fleeing Manhattan https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/22/rich-fleeing-manhattan-false-narrative-price-demand-up/87385511007/.
- Outperformance: The luxury segment continues to outperform the broader market. This trend is part of a larger pattern where the higher-priced NYC boroughs are seeing meaningful increases in sales, while lower-priced boroughs may be more sensitive to interest rate changes https://housingnotes.com/the-nyc-higher-end-is-where-the-sales-are-chart-edition/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nyc-higher-end-is-where-the-sales-are-chart-edition.
Final Takeaway
As we enter the quieter holiday months, the overall market remains on a stable, seasonal trajectory. For those watching the higher-end sector, its continued strength suggests that Manhattan remains an attractive and resilient investment for wealthy buyers, irrespective of political or media noise. As demonstrated by the Market Pulse chart, the Manhattan market remains in solid neutral territory.
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