The third quarter of 2025 played out much as expected, with the Manhattan market moving into a more seasonally typical rhythm. We saw pricing come off slightly from the highs of the first half of the year, while overall activity stayed steady. The luxury market continues to show resilience, and new development units—especially those offering modern design and amenities—remain a strong draw for buyers looking for turnkey options. The result? A market that feels more stable than stalled, though not without its complexities.
Market Performance
After a strong first half of the year, Manhattan prices softened slightly in Q3. The average price per square foot declined 3.9% quarter-over-quarter and 1.3% year-over-year, signaling a natural moderation rather than a downturn. Buyer sentiment has also cooled somewhat, aligning with seasonal norms and macroeconomic caution.
As we move into the traditionally more active fourth quarter, the relative balance between supply and demand suggests a continued path toward stability rather than volatility.
Review the full Q3 2025 Manhattan Market Report for a comprehensive breakdown of pricing trends, market dynamics, and inventory shifts.
Weekly Market Pulse
This week, Manhattan felt like it was in a bit of a holding pattern. Supply ticked higher, but the pace of new listings is beginning to slow. Meanwhile, demand—measured by the 30-day pace of contracts signed—rose above 800, a positive display of typical fall seasonality.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
At the weekly level, new listings jumped modestly while contract signings slowed, likely reflecting the impact of the late September and early October holiday period. The key question now: once the fall season fully engages, how high can momentum climb?
Reading the Market Climate
One of the more intriguing dynamics this quarter has been the correlation between the Climate Index and prices. Historically, as the climate index drops, prices follow suit. However, recent data shows “higher lows” in the index—an encouraging signal that Manhattan’s market may be entering a slow recovery phase.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
The Climate Index tracks how favorable the listing environment is for sellers by comparing the ratio of signed contracts to listings removed from the market.
- A rising index signals a warmer, more seller-friendly climate.
- A declining index points to a cooler, more challenging environment.
As the fall season progresses, this gradual firming could set the stage for a more active spring market in 2026.
Looking Ahead
The Manhattan market continues to demonstrate resilience amid shifting conditions. With demand showing seasonal strength and supply leveling off, buyers and sellers alike have opportunities—whether to find value in a more balanced environment or to position listings strategically before year-end activity peaks.
If you’d like to discuss how these trends may affect your property or your next purchase, we are always happy to share insights and help you navigate the market with confidence.