As October comes to a close, we’re seeing some encouraging signs in both Manhattan and Brooklyn, with contract activity improving as we approach the final stretch of the fall market. That said, demand is still running below last year’s levels, and the two boroughs are showing some notable differences in inventory.
Manhattan’s supply appears to have peaked and is beginning its seasonal decline, while Brooklyn inventory is still edging higher. Buyers remain active, but selective, and the market continues to be very dependent on price, property type, and location. With Thanksgiving just a few weeks away, timing is becoming an increasingly important part of the equation, particularly for sellers hoping to secure a contract before the end of the year.
Manhattan: Demand Improves as Inventory Begins to Tighten
Manhattan active inventory has slipped to 6,132 listings, down slightly from last week and 8.9% below last year. After building through September and much of October, supply appears to have reached its seasonal peak and is beginning to turn lower.
That’s significant because we’re already working with inventory levels well below historical norms. As we move toward Thanksgiving and the holidays, the number of available apartments will likely continue to decline, with the next meaningful wave of new listings not expected until late winter or early spring.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
New listing activity is also slowing, with 252 properties coming to market this week, down 13.7% from last week and 11.9% year-over-year. Most of the new inventory remains concentrated below $2M, accounting for roughly 68% of this week’s listings.
On the demand side, there’s been some welcome improvement. Manhattan’s 30-day contract activity increased 7.1% week-over-week to 893, continuing a recovery that began earlier in October. While that still puts demand 7.1% below last year, the gap has narrowed considerably from the weaker levels we saw earlier in the fall.
Weekly contracts also held relatively steady at 220, though that remains 14.4% below last year’s pace.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
The overall picture for Manhattan is improving, but still somewhat mixed. Demand is moving in the right direction, while supply is beginning to tighten. However, with the seasonal slowdown approaching, sellers who have been on the market without meaningful activity may want to consider a pricing adjustment while buyers are still engaged.
Brooklyn: More Inventory, But Demand Remains Subdued
Brooklyn is following a somewhat different path. Active inventory increased slightly to 3,809 listings, now 3.1% above last year. Unlike Manhattan, where supply has started to decline, Brooklyn inventory is still building, although that trend appears to be leveling off.
It’s an interesting distinction. Brooklyn buyers have more options than they did a year ago, but the market is also entering the time of year when new inventory typically begins to fall.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Weekly new listings dropped 18% to 173, the lowest weekly total since Labor Day. Almost half of those new listings were priced under $1M, with relatively limited new inventory arriving above $2M.
Demand has improved modestly, with the 30-day contract pace rising to 523, up 1.6% for the week, but still 2.2% below last year. Weekly contracts were essentially unchanged at 128, with more than half of those deals occurring below $1M.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
One interesting detail is that, despite the relatively subdued overall demand, properties that are finding buyers are often moving fairly quickly. Median days on market for pending contracts are just 48 days in the $1M–$2M segment and 43 days above $2M.
That tells us the Brooklyn market is not necessarily lacking buyers. Rather, activity remains concentrated in properties that offer the right combination of price, condition, and location. For sellers, that distinction matters. There is demand, but buyers aren’t responding equally to everything that’s available.
Mortgage Rates: Some Relief but Still Elevated
Mortgage rates pulled back this week, with the 30-year conforming rate falling to 7.14% and the 30-year jumbo rate dropping to 7.15%. The two are now nearly identical, following a particularly notable decline in jumbo rates.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
While that’s a welcome development, rates are still significantly higher than they were a year ago, and affordability continues to be a factor for many buyers. The recent improvement may help support activity as we head into November but is not expected to fundamentally change the market on its own.
The Final Stretch of the Fall Market
One of the more interesting takeaways from October is how the two boroughs have performed relative to their typical seasonal patterns.
In Manhattan, October contract activity is projected to finish slightly above its historical norm, even while running roughly 12% below last October. New listings, meanwhile, are tracking about 10% below normal.
Brooklyn has been softer on both fronts. October contracts are projected to finish approximately 17% below their seasonal norm, while new listings are also running below typical levels.
These are preliminary estimates as October wraps up, but they reinforce the idea that this fall has been more measured than usual, particularly in Brooklyn.
Sellers
The calendar is becoming increasingly important. We typically see contract activity begin to slow as Thanksgiving approaches, leaving only a few more weeks of meaningful fall demand. If a property has been sitting without much interest, this may be the time to revisit pricing rather than waiting until the market gets even quieter.
Buyers
There may be some good opportunities in properties that have been on the market for an extended period, particularly those that have already undergone price reductions. Those sellers may be more willing to negotiate as the year winds down. That said, newly listed and appropriately priced homes can still attract competition, so the approach needs to reflect the individual property rather than just the broader market.
Where We Go from Here
The fall market has shown some improvement, but it remains selective. Manhattan inventory is tightening, Brooklyn continues to offer more supply, and buyer demand in both boroughs is improving modestly while still trailing last year.
As we approach the holiday season, the window for sellers to capitalize on fall activity is narrowing. For buyers, the coming weeks may provide opportunities to negotiate with sellers who are motivated to get a deal done before year-end.
As always, the broad numbers only tell part of the story. Neighborhood, building, layout, condition, and price all play an important role in how an individual property performs. Understanding those differences is especially important in a market like this one.
Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, we are always happy to discuss how these trends apply to your situation.