March is typically when the New York City real estate market finds its stride. This year, it’s more of a slow push forward than a full sprint.
We’re seeing signs of life—more listings, a rebound in deal activity—but the market is still operating just below its usual spring intensity. The tone right now is best described as cautious, not concerned. There’s uncertainty in the background, but no sense of panic. Buyers and sellers are engaging—they’re just doing so more deliberately.
Manhattan: Reset Pricing Meets Tight Supply
In Manhattan, supply saw a meaningful uptick in the second half of March. Even so, we remain in a low-inventory environment by historical standards. Simply put: there still isn’t enough product to fully meet demand.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Contracts signed remain below both the monthly average and last year’s pace, though we did see a notable late-month rebound, with weekly deal volume jumping more than 20%. Demand is improving—but not yet at full strength.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
The key variable from here is supply. If inventory meaningfully expands this spring, we could see stronger deal volume. If not, constrained supply will continue to limit the market’s upside.
Brooklyn: More Supply, Less Urgency
Brooklyn is telling a different story.
Inventory has now climbed above 3,000 listings, with supply trending higher year over year. However, demand is moving in the opposite direction—down slightly week to week and trailing the elevated levels of recent years. New listings are increasing, but not dramatically.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Meanwhile, contracts continue to soften, reinforcing that buyers are proceeding more deliberately. The result is a more balanced—if slightly challenging—spring market, with supply now outpacing demand.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
It’s also important to recognize that Brooklyn is a highly neighborhood-driven market, and these trends are far from uniform. Performance varies meaningfully by location, price point, and product type—prime brownstone neighborhoods and the waterfront are behaving very differently from more emerging or value-oriented areas. In effect, Brooklyn is not a single market, but a collection of micro-markets moving at different speeds.
Pricing also sets Brooklyn apart. Unlike Manhattan, Brooklyn values have not reset. Median asking prices remain approximately 15% above 2021 levels, even after coming off their 2025 peak. Sellers, particularly at the higher end, are still pricing with confidence, and that gap between expectations and buyer behavior is something we’re watching closely.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
The Macro Backdrop: Rates, Rents, and a Divided Market
The broader economic picture continues to shape decision-making.
Mortgage rates have moved back into the mid-6% range—not due to expected Fed action, but because lenders are pricing in greater risk. Inflation remains sticky around 3%, with rising oil prices adding pressure, and there are early signs of softening in the job market.
At the same time, rents remain at record highs and are unlikely to decline in the near term. This is keeping the “rent vs. buy” conversation very active. We’re seeing more renters explore purchasing, though many still value flexibility and are hesitant to commit.
What’s emerging is a clear bifurcation:
- The lower end of the market is feeling the weight of higher borrowing costs.
- The luxury market continues to perform well, supported by strong Wall Street bonuses, equity gains, and less reliance on financing.
Layer in the fact that new development supply is limited—likely for the next several years—and the longer-term pressure on inventory, particularly in Manhattan, remains intact.
Looking Ahead
As we move into April, the bigger picture is this: the market is moving forward, just not at full speed.
- For buyers, this is a moment of opportunity—pricing has adjusted, and leverage has improved.
- For sellers, success depends on meeting the market where it is today, not where it was a year ago.
The spring market is here. The question now is whether it accelerates—or continues at this more measured pace.
As always, we are here as a resource. If you’d like to discuss how these trends apply to your situation—or simply want a clearer picture of the market—don’t hesitate to get in touch.