March has arrived, and in New York City real estate that’s significant. Historically, March is the single busiest month for contract activity, marking the real start of the spring market. While activity is beginning to build, the early theme of the season is already clear: supply remains tight.
Inventory levels across the city remain below what we would normally expect at this point in the year. Many potential sellers simply aren’t feeling urgency to move. Higher mortgage rates, relatively flat pricing in some segments, and general economic uncertainty have encouraged many homeowners to stay put.
As a result, even though new listings are beginning to increase week to week as the spring listing wave starts, overall supply is still constrained.
Manhattan: Demand Rising, Supply Still Tight
In Manhattan, inventory rose about 3% this past week, but the bigger picture remains one of limited supply. Listings are still roughly 9% below where they were this time last year.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Demand, however, is moving in the right direction. Signed contracts have begun to tick higher as the market transitions into its busiest stretch of the year. Liquidity — the pace at which listings turn into contracts — is one of the clearest indicators of market health, and that metric is gradually improving.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
That said, weekly deal volume dipped slightly, reflecting the broader macro environment. Mortgage rates have bumped up again as expectations for interest rate cuts have been pushed further out, and financial markets have been more volatile.
For buyers, this creates a more complicated decision-making environment, but it hasn’t stopped activity from building as spring begins.
Manhattan Pricing: A Decade of Sideways Movement
Manhattan resale condo pricing continues to highlight a trend that surprises many sellers: prices have moved relatively little over the past decade.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
After a brief bump last spring, values eased back and are now sitting roughly where they have hovered for years. Many sellers assume strong appreciation since the mid-2010s, but the data shows that purchases from that period are often closer to breakeven today.
This underscores an important point about the Manhattan market cycle: liquidity and market conditions often drive activity more than sustained price growth.
Brooklyn: A Different Long-Term Story
Brooklyn presents a somewhat different picture.
Inventory edged higher this week, rising about 2%, though supply remains tight and only slightly above last year’s level. Demand softened a bit, with the 30-day contract pace slipping week over week — again reflecting the limited inventory available for buyers.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
New listings were essentially unchanged from the prior week, highlighting how stagnant listing flow has been so far this spring. Deal activity improved, but buyers are still navigating rising mortgage rates, market volatility, and broader economic uncertainty.
For now, Brooklyn’s spring market is also fundamentally a supply story.
Brooklyn Pricing: Long-Term Growth Still Intact
Where Brooklyn diverges from Manhattan is in long-term pricing trends.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Brooklyn resale condo prices have followed a steady upward trajectory since the late 2000s, with price per square foot rising over time. That borough-wide strength, however, masks considerable variation between neighborhoods and property types.
Today, pricing outcomes depend heavily on micro-market factors — condition, carrying costs, building quality, and local demand dynamics. Some segments continue to outperform, while others lag.
The Macro Backdrop
Several broader forces are also influencing the market.
Mortgage rates have moved higher recently as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have declined. In a riskier environment, lenders often require higher returns to compensate for uncertainty.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
At the same time, geopolitical tensions have not yet had a clear direct effect on the housing market, though rising oil prices could introduce inflationary pressures. Employment data has also been somewhat mixed, raising questions about whether the broader economy may be entering a more cautious phase.
Notably, 2022 was the last spring market without a major external shock, which coincided with the beginning of the rapid rise in interest rates.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 spring market is beginning to take shape, and the early signals are clear: we’re in green shoots territory.
Demand is slowly building. Signed contracts are starting to rise. But supply remains tight, and sellers are not feeling pressure to come to market.
As March — historically the busiest month for contract activity — gets underway, the big question is whether more inventory will emerge. If sellers step in, the spring market could quickly gain momentum. If they don’t, limited supply will continue to define the season.
Either way, the market is waking up — and the next few weeks will tell us a lot about how strong this spring will be.