February has always been the ramp-up month into the New York City spring real estate market, which traditionally begins March 1st. The first half of February tends to feel early and tentative. The second half? That’s when we often see trends begin to shift.
After three years of market doldrums, the question remains: Is this finally the season we shake it off?
For now, supply remains tight — but activity is starting to ramp.
Manhattan: Idling at the Edge of Spring
Manhattan is still hovering at the starting line. Supply was essentially flat week over week and remains meaningfully below last year. New listings printed surprisingly light as we moved into the back half of February — not exactly the surge sellers were hoping for.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Demand, however, is beginning to rotate higher.
- The 30-day contract pace rose 5% week over week
- Weekly contracts signed jumped nicely
- Pipeline activity from late January is finally hitting the tape
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
It’s not full spring acceleration yet — but it’s the first convincing push of the season.
February is trending a bit slower than prior years, but the recent pop in contracts signed brings us back toward the “normal” pattern of the past few seasons.
Manhattan’s Bigger Picture: Timing Is Everything
This week, we’re looking at profit versus timing. The takeaway is sobering: over the past decade, Manhattan pricing has largely moved sideways.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Big picture – Buyers from 2015–2018 are often flat or only marginally positive — and that’s before transaction costs. Only those who bought during downturn windows (think 2009 or 2020) are sitting on meaningful gains.
In Manhattan, timing has mattered more than price point. For sellers, that’s an important reality check. Not every purchase year leads to profit once taxes, carry costs, and transaction friction are factored in.
A big caveat to this is consideration for the effect renovations and improvements have on values.
Brooklyn: Slow Motion — But Waking Up
Brooklyn continues to move in slow motion on the supply side. Inventory is effectively unchanged. New listings rose modestly but remain choppy. The borough is still starved for supply.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Demand, however, is showing more energy than Manhattan.
- 30-day contract pace rose 11% for the second straight week
- Weekly contracts signed climbed 24% — the strongest print of the year
That’s real momentum.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Overall demand still sits below last year’s level, so this is progress — not breakout — but Brooklyn may finally be shaking off its winter malaise.
Brooklyn’s Long-Term Story: Patience Has Paid
The profit versus timing chart du jour highlights Brooklyn’s longer-term price performance.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs.com
Buyers from 2009–2012 are sitting on near double-digit annualized gains — often approaching 100% total returns. Even those who bought between 2015–2018 are generally up 15–20%, far outperforming Manhattan’s flat decade. Only the most recent buyers are facing similar sideways conditions.
Brooklyn has historically rewarded patience and volume-driven growth.
The question now: Will renewed transaction activity this spring reignite that engine? Or will tight inventory continue to suppress upside?
Bottom Line
February is that in-between month. Not quite winter, not quite spring — but you can feel the shift starting.
Manhattan is beginning to stretch a little. Brooklyn has a bit more energy in its step. Neither is in full spring mode yet, but the early signals are there. Inventory is still tight in both boroughs, which means when demand does fully engage, it won’t take much to move the needle.
Spring in New York real estate rarely arrives all at once. It builds quietly, week by week — and then suddenly we’re in it.
We’re paying attention so you don’t have to.