Recently we’ve seen some surprisingly encouraging activity from the Manhattan market. After several weeks of choppy sentiment and mixed signals, we’re starting to see stronger momentum on both the supply and demand sides—especially notable given the broader uncertainty around rates and the upcoming election. The overall takeaway? Fall 2025 may not be a breakout season, but it’s showing more resilience than many expected.
Market Performance
Manhattan supply came in at 6,924 active listings, slightly off from mid-October’s peak. That’s now two consecutive years we’ve approached 7,000 units in the fall but fallen just short. Whether or not we cross that threshold, we’re very much in line with historic fall patterns—this is typically the point in the calendar when new listings start to taper off and continue to do so until January. Expect fewer fresh listings in the coming weeks, especially as we near the Thanksgiving holiday.
Courtesy of Urbandigs.com
Demand Trends
On the demand side, contract activity continues to stay strong. The 30-day pace of contracts signed hit 947, well above the October seasonal average of 911. That makes this one of the best fall readings we’ve seen since 2021, and stronger than where we were at this time in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023. Weekly contract activity jumped to 254 deals signed, a nearly 25% week-over-week increase and a clear sign of buyer engagement. Last year, we started the fall strongly and then trailed out. 2025 is proving to be the reverse as, after a slow start, contracts signed grew and remain resilient this late in October.
Courtesy of Urbandigs.com
Courtesy of Urbandigs.com
Price Cut Strategy: The Numbers Are Clear
One of the standout data points this week centers on pricing strategy. As shown in the chart below, average total price cuts for signed deals in Manhattan over the last 90 days is at 7.4%. That figure includes all price amendments leading up to contract—not just the final listing reduction.
For sellers currently on market, the takeaway is simple: a single, meaningful price adjustment early in the listing cycle (typically by day 30–40) is more effective than multiple smaller cuts later. Once a listing goes through two or three reductions, the total discount tends to exceed 10%, and buyer perception begins to shift accordingly.
Courtesy of Urbandigs.com
Looking Ahead
As we head toward the midpoint of the fall season, all eyes are on whether this stronger pace of contracts can hold moving into November. If demand keeps up and new inventory slows—both of which look very possible—sellers may find themselves in a more balanced position than expected. At the same time, buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines might see fewer options and more competition heading into November. Either way, now is the moment to be active, informed, and ready to move with confidence.
If you’re curious how this data translates to your specific property or buying goals, we are always available to talk through strategy and timing. Let’s navigate the market together.