Last week ended with good news as the most recent inflation report (CPI) came in lower than expected on Thursday.
- The stock market rallied to its biggest day in 2 years.
- Mortgage interest rates took an immediate and notable move down.
All that said, the Fed has a long way to go in their fight against inflation, but it is certainly encouraging.
As this type of economic data will take some time to work its way into our real estate numbers, let’s look at where things stand now, halfway through the 4th quarter.
What’s on the Market
The current number of apartments on the market has been following 2019 and 2020 pace almost exactly. If this continues, we expect a seasonal downward shift in inventory through the holidays and end of year. This is actually potentially good news.
Despite all the other economic factors outside the real estate market, our typical real estate seasonality is still staying consistent. It also tells us that any buyers on the market now who are holding off for more options should note that the next sizable wave of listings will most likely not be until 2023.
Demand Leveling Off?
The number of pending sales has been transitioning down from the incredibly busy 2021 for most of this year and that reset is still continuing. Will this start leveling off now that we’ve reached 2019 and 2020 levels? Will it keep traveling down lower than them?
Time will tell but here’s what we are looking out for. When that demand does start to rise again, and should inventory stay on its present course, we could see sellers regain some of their leverage in the market.
Weekly contracts signed is one of our best indicators of what is happening right now in the NYC market. Why? Mainly because apartment sales in our predominantly co-op and condo market typically take 3-6 months to close and post.
So what are signed contracts telling us now? There is a slight week over week rise but we have yet to experience a significant boost from buyers taking advantage of the current buyer’s market.
We’ve just seen how quickly a little good economic news can boost consumer confidence. For now, though, buyers in NYC continue to enjoy less competition and greater negotiating power than we’ve seen since lockdown. Sellers out there now are real and looking to get deals done. Working with someone who can help you maximize your leverage in this market is more important than ever.
As always, please email or call with any questions. We would be more than happy to customize the conversation to fit your needs.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving!